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Watching the Law of Accelerating Returns

Gordon Moore, one of the founders of Intel Corporation, observed in the 1960s that the ratio of complexity to cost for computer components doubled approximately every two years. Today this observation is known among computer scientists as "Moore's Law". In its original formulation, Moore's Law reflected the rate of advance of the transistor-based computer architecture of the time. More recently, Kurzweil recognized that Moore's Law also accounts for the rate of advance of previous computer architectures (electromechanical, relay, and vacuum tube computing) and subsequent computer architectures (integrated circuit computing), and that the rate of advance has been increasing. Furthermore, Kurzweil observed that Moore's Law could be generalized to describe accurately the rate of technological advance broadly, well beyond the field of computing. This generalization of Moore's Law is known among futurists as the "Law of Accelerating Returns", which holds that technology as a whole is advancing, and will continue to advance, at an exponential rate.

Some of the latest evidence for the Law of Accelerating Returns can be observed in information storage and parallel processing trends. According to BusinessWeek, total information storage in 2003 was estimated at 5 exabytes. Applying the Law of Accelerating Returns, we may have predicted the following:

5 Exabytes in 2003

10 Exabytes in 2004

20 Exabytes in 2005

40 Exabytes in 2006

As it turns out, BusinessWeek reports, information storage at the end of 2006 reached an estimated 40 exabytes, as the Law of Accelerating Returns would have predicted. In 2006, parallel processing became popular among consumers, as Intel pushed its dual core processors into the market. Already, in early 2007, we are seeing quad core processors entering the consumer market. Assuming these are the beginning of a parallel processing trend, the Law of Accelerating Returns may predict the following:

2 Processors in 2006

4 Processors in 2007

8 Processors in 2008

16 Processors in 2009

32 Processors in 2010

64 Processors in 2011

As it turns out, CNET News.com reports, Intel has pledged to introduce 80-core processors into the consumer market by 2011, much as the Law of Accelerating Returns would predict.

Understanding Mormons

As a result of Mitt Romney's bid for the presidency of the United States, media scrutiny and debate of what it means to be Mormon has been increasing. Browse through posts to "Mormonism News" in recent months, and you'll find that a significant portion of them mention Mitt Romney and, in the same breath, wonder or assert how Mormonism affects a person's views, political and otherwise.

A recent SurveyUSA poll of Utah residents suggests that Mormons generally feel misunderstood. This is reflected in another recent poll, from Gallup, focused on "Americans' Views of the Mormon Religion". Gallup summarizes its results as follows:

Something about the Mormon religion apparently disturbs a significant portion of the American population. A quarter of Americans in a recent Gallup Poll said they would not vote for an otherwise well-qualified presidential candidate who is a Mormon. A Washington Post/ABC News poll found that 29% of Americans said they would be less likely to vote for a presidential candidate who is a Mormon. These negative attitudes appear to be based on more than just concerns about the Mormon religion in a presidential context. New Gallup polling shows that 46% of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of the Mormon religion in general, slightly higher than the 42% who have a favorable opinion.

When asked what comes to mind first when they think about Mormons, respondents most frequently responded, "polygamy". This is not surprising, given the LDS Church's historical emphasis of the practice of plural marriage, regular media coverage of fundamentalist Mormons who continue the practice, and a general unfamiliarity with modern Mormonism. What surprised me, however, is that even respondents with favorable views of Mormonism most frequently mentioned "polygamy" as the first thing that comes to mind. Perhaps trends toward serial marriage (and simple promiscuity) have decreased our relative concern with marital commitment to multiple partners? That is implicit in a comment from New York Post columnist Dick Morris, in reference to Republican candidates for the presidency: "the only one of these guys who hasn't had multiple wives is the Mormon".

Despite increasing big media attention, interest in Mormonism on the Internet may be decreasing. Google Trends, which charts search trends among the majority of Internet users, shows a marked downturn in searches for "mormon" over the last year.It will be interesting to observe whether these trends continue and how they affect popular attitudes toward Mormons. It seems that increasing exposure to big media combined with decreasing reliance on information available through the Internet would continue to promote stereotypes that, whether more or less positive than those promoted today, overlook the diversity of Mormonism, and therefore perpetuate misunderstanding.