My son asks, what will computers be like in 2033?
3 May 2008 (updated 21 September 2014)
My oldest son recently won the science fair with his project on Moore’s Law and accelerating technological change. He and I spent a lot of time collecting price and performance information about historic computers, discussing how we can try to predict the future based on projections of historic trends, and talking about differences between linear and exponential trends and their appearances in graphs. I enjoyed watching him present everything he learned to his class. Take a look!
Question: What will computers be like in the year 2033, when I’m 35 years old?
Hypothesis: From experience and research, I think they’ll become more powerful.
Experience: My old computer is slow, but my new computer is fast!
Research: I used the Internet to find the power of old computers.
| Computer Name (Processor Name) | Year | Speed (IPS) | Price | Adjusted Price | Speed (IPS) / $1,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Busicom 141-PF (Intel 4004) | 1972 | 60,000 | $500 | $2,600 | 23,077 |
| R2E Micral (Intel 8008) | 1973 | 60,000 | $1,700 | $8,300 | 7,229 |
| SCELBI-8H (Intel 8008) | 1974 | 60,000 | $1,000 | $4,600 | 13,043 |
| Altair 8800 (Intel 8080) | 1975 | 640,000 | $700 | $2,900 | 220,690 |
| Apple I (MOS Technology 6502) | 1976 | 430,000 | $500 | $1,900 | 226,316 |
| Commodore PET 2001 (MOS Technology 6502) | 1977 | 430,000 | $600 | $2,100 | 204,762 |
| Tandy TRS-80 (Zilog Z80) | 1978 | 580,000 | $600 | $2,000 | 290,000 |
| Tandy TRS-80 (Motorola 68000) | 1979 | 1,000,000 | $1,000 | $3,100 | 322,581 |
| Tandy TRS-80 (Motorola 68000) | 1980 | 1,000,000 | $700 | $2,000 | 500,000 |
| IBM PC (Intel 8088) | 1981 | 330,000 | $1,565 | $3,900 | 84,615 |
| IBM PC (Intel 8088) | 1982 | 330,000 | $1,265 | $2,800 | 117,857 |
| IBM PC jr (Intel 8088) | 1983 | 330,000 | $700 | $1,500 | 220,000 |
| IBM PC AT (Intel 286) | 1984 | 2,700,000 | $6,000 | $12,300 | 219,512 |
| Compaq DeskPro 286 (Intel 286) | 1985 | 2,700,000 | $4,500 | $8,900 | 303,371 |
| Compaq Deskpro 386 (Intel 386) | 1986 | 6,000,000 | $5,000 | $9,500 | 631,579 |
| Compaq Deskpro 386 (Intel 386) | 1987 | 7,000,000 | $6,500 | $12,100 | 578,512 |
| Compaq Deskpro 386 (Intel 386DX) | 1988 | 8,500,000 | $10,300 | $18,600 | 456,989 |
| Compaq Deskpro 386 (Intel 386DX) | 1989 | 8,500,000 | $8,000 | $13,900 | 611,511 |
| Compaq Deskpro 486 (Intel 486) | 1990 | 20,000,000 | $14,000 | $24,200 | 826,446 |
| Compaq Deskpro 486 (Intel 486) | 1991 | 20,000,000 | $3,200 | $5,000 | 4,000,000 |
| Dell Dimension 486DX (Intel 486DX) | 1992 | 54,000,000 | $2,100 | $3,200 | 16,875,000 |
| Compaq Deskpro Pentium (Intel Pentium) | 1993 | 100,000,000 | $3,200 | $4,700 | 21,276,596 |
| Apple Power Macintosh 6100 (PowerPC 601) | 1994 | 35,000,000 | $1,800 | $2,500 | 14,000,000 |
| Acorn Network Computer (ARM 7500FE) | 1995 | 35,900,000 | $400 | $500 | 71,800,000 |
| Dell OptiPlex GX Pro (Intel Pentium Pro) | 1996 | 541,000,000 | $2,500 | $3,400 | 159,117,647 |
| Apple Macintosh G3 (PowerPC G3) | 1997 | 525,000,000 | $2,000 | $2,600 | 201,923,077 |
| Micron Millenia 450 (Intel Pentium II) | 1998 | 855,000,000 | $1,900 | $2,400 | 356,250,000 |
| Dell OptiPlex GX 110 (Intel Pentium III) | 1999 | 1,354,000,000 | $1,200 | $1,500 | 902,666,667 |
| Gateway Select 1200 (AMD Athlon) | 2000 | 3,561,000,000 | $2,500 | $3,100 | 1,148,709,677 |
| HP Workstation i2000 (Intel Itanium) | 2001 | 6,000,000,000 | $7,000 | $8,300 | 722,891,566 |
| HP Pavilion 752n (AMD Athlon XP 2400+) | 2002 | 5,935,000,000 | $1,200 | $1,400 | 4,239,285,714 |
| Gateway 700GX (Intel Pentium 4 Extreme Edition) | 2003 | 9,726,000,000 | $3,300 | $3,800 | 2,559,473,684 |
| Dell Inspiron 500m (Intel Pentium M) | 2004 | 1,959,000,000 | $1,200 | $1,300 | 1,506,923,077 |
| Dell XPS 260 (Intel Pentium 4) | 2005 | 18,000,000,000 | $1,800 | $2,000 | 9,000,000,000 |
| Dell XPS 410 (Intel Core 2 X6800) | 2006 | 27,079,000,000 | $2,500 | $2,600 | 10,415,000,000 |
| Dell Precision T7400 (Intel Quad Core Xeon) | 2007 | 37,000,000,000 | $1,600 | $1,600 | 23,125,000,000 |
Results: The power of computers is increasing exponentially.
Conclusion: In 2033, computers may be as powerful as human brains.
