TransVision Thursday Keynote Ray Kurzweil

I’m in Chicago for TransVision 2007. Here are some notes and thoughts from Ray Kurzweil’s keynote.

Ray Kurzweil mentioned that he usually has to explain accelerating change. This group is different. Why do some people get it quick, while some resist? It might be attacking their coping mechanisms, so they rationalize death.

A key implication of technology is exponential growth. Short term growth may seem linear, but long term there are profound differences. Few persons understand the implications of exponential growth. Two centuries ago, no one recognized this because exponential growth seemed linear.

Failure is not failure. Advice to entrepreneurs is to persist. Timing is also important. Many techs fail by being too early or too late.

The application of AI is gradually becoming less narrow. We are adopting technologies more quickly.

Technological evolution took up exponential growth in a smooth trend from biological evolution. We are moving through epochs of technology. Maybe there was an intelligent designer, as explored with James Gardner. The fifth epoch is beginning, as the merger of biology and human technology.

Exponential growth actually comes in S curves, which don’t last forever. But when a particular tech runs out of steam, it produces pressure to produce the next innovation. There may indeed be limits, but they’re not very limiting. Moore’s Law has endured throughout the entire 20th century, across world wars and multiple computing architectures.

Internet hosts are increasing exponentially. We’re shrinking tech exponentially.

Human brain simulation in super computers may be feasible between 2010 and 2015. Processor speeds are increasing exponentially, and costs are falling exponentially. DNA sequencing cost is decreasing exponentially. DNA sequence data stored is increasing exponentially.

Scanning of the human brain is also advancing exponentially. The brain appears neither to be simple nor unmanageably complex. The brain is a fractal of the genome. A little bit of data can be extrapolated to great amounts of data.

Reverse engineering the brain also requires advances in software. Templates of intelligence come from reverse engineering the human brain and AI research. AGI community keeps shortening consensus timelines, getting closer to Kurzweil’s prediction of 2029.

The portion of the value of a product or service that is information is asymptoting toward 100 percent. Radical life extension will not require a vote, just like the Internet did not require a vote. It all happens a step at a time.

Ecommerce advancing exponentially. Education expenditures increasing exponentially. Machines are improving speech recognition, and pattern recognition. Humans only consider a couple dozen variables, and computers consider thousands.

Neural nets and genetic algorithms are attempting to model human thought patterns. Artificial intelligence is real intelligence that is not yet so subtle as human intelligence.

Transhumanism is about transcending human limitations. We’re the only species that does that. We seek to go beyond our limitations.

In 2010 computers will disappear. They’ll be very small, with ubiquitous high bandwidth. They’ll be embedded in clothes and common objects.

Eventually, there will be full immersion virtual reality and augmented reality. Computers are doing more and more that some thought only humans could do. The equivalent of human brain computation will cost 1 dollar.

Reverse engineering the brain will be completed. Computers will pass the turing test. Non-biological and biological intelligence will combine and continue to advance exponentially. Nanobots will provide neural implants that are nonsurgical, and expand human intelligence.

Average life expectancy is extending. It was only 48 years in 1900, and 37 in 1800. We’re now at 78 years. According to some models, we’ll be adding more than one year every year to our lives in less than 15 years.

Decentralized self-organizing systems are inherently stable. A new system called “world wide mesh” is more decentralized than the Internet.

GNR promise and peril is confronting us. The G, genetics, is facing us today. The N, nanotechnology, is coming in 20 years. And the R, robotics and strong AI, is coming after that.

More Notes on TransVision 2007

If you enjoyed my notes on this session of TransVision 2007, you might also enjoy my notes on other sessions. Here's a list, in chronological order, of the TransVision 2007 sessions for which I've published notes:

• TransVision Tuesday Morning Session 1
• TransVision Tuesday Keynote Aubrey de Grey
• TransVision Tuesday Morning Session 2
• TransVision Tuesday Afternoon Session 2
• TransVision Wednesday Keynote Ed Begley, Jr.
• TransVision Wednesday Morning Session 2
• TransVision Thursday Morning Session 1
• TransVision Thursday Keynote Peter Diamandis
• TransVision Thursday Afternoon Session 1
• TransVision Thursday Afternoon Session 2
• TransVision Thursday Keynote William Shatner
• TransVision Thursday Keynote Ray Kurzweil